Okay, so here's my official SUPER BOWL PREDICTION. All shall cower in fear and awe of my prognosticative powers.

We'll first start off with the matchup of the Colts offense against the Bears defense. The Bears defense is a tough one to make a judgment call on. With Tommie Harris healthy, they are probably the second best defense in the league, behind only the Ravens. Of course, Harris is out, so that point is relatively moot. Like I said, the Bears defense without Harris is difficult to categorize. They don't stuff the run particularly well, but few teams have been able to consistently run the ball down their throats. The pass rush has been fairly anemic save for Mark Anderson (how he didn't win the Defensive Rookie of the Year is beyond me), but there is a decent amount of talent there (especially if Tank Johnson doesn't kill anyone between now and Sunday). With Mike Brown out, the secondary is vulnerable as well (although I'm not sure if Brown's presence would actually change this). Teams have been able to move the ball on the defense, but more often than not, when an offense gets into Bears territory, the defense usually gets a big turnover. The best way to describe this defense would be to say that they are opportunistic. I think it would be unfair to say that the turnovers are all luck; they happen with too much regularity for it to simply be chance, and with regards to the forced fumbles, stripping the ball has always been a point of emphasis for the Bears. Still, you get the feeling that if a team were to play disciplined and focus primarily on retaining possession of the ball, they would be able to score a decent amount of points on the Bears. But are the Colts that team?

The biggest question about the Colts offense is going to be Peyton Manning. Manning is obviously talented, but you have to remember that he has only played about three quarters of a good game total throughout these playoffs. He was incredibly inept against both the Chiefs and the Ravens. Many figure that now that he has thrown the Patriots monkey off his back, Manning's days of tensing up under pressure are over, and that may be true, but if he comes out as shaky as he has in the last three games, the Colts are going to find themselves behind the 8 ball. If Manning comes out the quarterback he was in the second half of the Pats game, he should be able to move the ball on the Bears defense. Joseph Addai and Dominic Rhodes are not going to take over a game, but running behind a good Colts line, they should be able to get some yards. Balance will be a key; if the Colts get into any obvious running situations, I do not see them being able to convert a great deal of them. The second most important matchup on this side of the ball, behind Manning vs. himself, is going to be Marvin Harrison and Reggie Wayne against Charles Tillman, Nathan Vasher, and Ricky Manning Jr. With Urlacher patrolling the middle of the field, I do not expect the Colts to do much damage with the tight ends, so the success of the passing game is going to be dependent on the Colts receivers getting open. The Bears have big physical corners that may be able to disrupt the Colts' routes, but they are also susceptible to the type of double moves that the Colts run really well. It would not shock me to see the Colts complete a couple of deep passes on Sunday.

Now, let's focus on the Bears offense versus the Colts defense. What are we to make of the Colts defense? During the regular season, they may have been the worst defense at stopping the run that I've seen in the last ten years. All of a sudden, in the playoffs they seemingly solve that problem. Many seem to feel that Bob Sanders's return was the main factor in the Colts' improvement at stopping the run. That may or may not be the case, but one thing is clear, especially after watching the Colts-Chiefs game: when the Indianapolis defense is focused solely on stopping the run, they are able to do so. This is going to pose a bit of a problem for the Bears, since they were kinda hoping Rex Grossman wouldn't have to do anything great. Unfortunately for Rex, his strengths and weaknesses play right into the Colts' hands. Grossman does very few things right, but one thing he does do well is throw an accurate deep ball (the other: proficient sperm donation, even if it sometimes is not asked for). The Colts cover 2 defense will negate this, however, as their focal point on defense is keeping the offense in front of them and then coming up to make the tackle. If Grossman is able to find receivers quickly and throw accurate short and intermediate routes, he should be able to find some holes in the defense. Of course, if Grossman is able to do this, then he is not in fact Rex Grossman. Rex Grossman does not bother himself with those little faggy short routes. Basically, I think the Colts will be good enough at stopping the run on first and second down to force the Bears into a decent amount of 3rd and longs, and if the Bears get in those situations, they will be in trouble. Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis are very good at pass rushing, and Grossman is not terribly adept at evading the pass rush and finding an open receiver. The key to this matchup is going to be on first and second down (wow, I just said that 2/3 of the offense's snaps are going to play an important factor in this game. Way to go out on a limb; I should work for ESPN). The Bears cannot hope to run the ball on first and second down and consistently get into manageable third downs. They're going to need to get some pass completions to loosen up the defense; this is where it would be helpful if Grossman threw to a tight end or running back at least once or twice. Of course, if they do go to the pass early and throw incompletions, they're going to end up in the same spot. Personally, I doubt the Bears have much success moving the ball; they're going to need some turnovers and solid special teams play to set up their scores.

Special teams is going to be the one part of the game where the Bears will have a clear advantage. Both kickers are dependable, and considering these two teams I would expect them to get a decent amount of work in: if I were setting the over/under on field goals in this game, I would set it around 5-6. Where the Bears have a huge advantage, however, is in kickoff return. Devin Hester has been a little inconsistent lately at fielding kicks and punts, but once he has the ball in his hands, few doubt his ability. Watching the Colts-Pats game two weeks ago, I was very surprised by how poor Indianapolis's kickoff coverage was. The Pats return team wasn't anything terribly special, but they got some great returns on the Colts, usually to around the 40. Hester has enough speed where if he gets the type of holes that the Pats were getting, he has a good chance of bringing one all the way back. I'm actually really tempted to put down a prop bet that Hester will be the first player to score a touchdown in the game. Even if he doesn't actually score any touchdowns, I think his return ability will be enough to give the Bears an advantage in field position.

Bottom Line
The Colts are going to get their points against the Bears defense. They may not move the ball at will, but it seems unrealistic to think the Bears can completely shut them down. On the other side, the Bears are going to have difficulty moving the ball on the Colts. A turnover or a good return may set the Bears up very well, but when Grossman has an entire field in front of him, I think he is going to struggle. I'd love to make a homer pick, but I can't:
Colts 27 Bears 16